Roswell, Georgia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

025
FXUS62 KFFC 150535
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
135 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

...New 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Key Messages:

 - Isolated afternoon and evening storms are expected today and
   Friday.

 - Any storm interruptions to Friday evening plans should be
   isolated in nature and brief in duration.

 - Friday will be the warmest day this week, with peak heat
   indices over 100 degrees.

Today and Tonight:

Subsidence on the backside of a trough in the Carolinas will limit
thunderstorm coverage today despite diurnal heating and ample
moisture. Some storm activity could get going over the higher
terrain of northeast Georgia this afternoon, though satellite trends
suggest less than ideal mid level flow for terrain driven
convection. Note the tendency for the developing cumulus in the
satellite view to move off the higher mountain peaks instead of
remaining anchored in place where they could take advantage of
differential heating and grow. Another area to watch for some
convection later today could be along the GA/AL border, where
distance from the trough will lead to weaker subsidence. Tall and
narrow CAPE profiles should help limit the potential for stronger
storms today. Though if something does get going in northeast
Georgia (better instability in this region) a few isolated wind
gusts in near 40 mph could occur. Prevailing northwest flow should
lead to progressive storm motions today. Thus flooding is not
expected to be a concern.

Light winds, less mid level cloud cover and recent rainfall could
all be contributing factors to some patchy fog development tonight.
This would be especially true for low lying areas in the river and
mountain valleys. None of the CAMs indicated widespread dense fog
formation that would warrant a Dense Fog Advisory, so we don`t
expect widespread visibility issues (10% chance of Dense Fog
Advisory).

For Friday:

A fairly typical summer day is expected on Friday. Isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms should occur between 2 PM and 10
PM. Shear will be non existent and mid level (700-500 mb) lapse
rates will be dismal (~5.0 C/km), and this combo should greatly
limit the potential for any severe weather. That said, peak
afternoon SBCAPE values in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range and PW values
near 2 inches could support isolated downburst winds near 40 mph and
high rain rates (near 2 inches per hour) for brief periods. Storm
motions should also be slower today and this may be supportive of
some brief and localized flooding concerns. Overall storm coverage
doesn`t look extensive (per HREF guidance) and we lowered the
forecast precipitation chance into the 15 to 30 percent range from
the base NBM guidance.

Friday will be the warmest day of the week. Look for high
temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s. Combine these readings
with afternoon surface dewpoints in the lower 70s, and widespread
Heat Indices in the 98 to 105 degree range can be anticipated.
Boundary layer mixing should be sufficient in the afternoon to
depress dewpoints some and keep us from needing to issue a Heat
Advisory. The odds of Heat Advisory being issued for east central
Georgia are near 15%, while in the Metro they are less than 5%.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Key Messages:

 - Diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms are expected each
   day, but not all of north and central Georgia will see rain.

 - Temperatures will generally range from right at average to
   several degrees above average.

Discussion:

Ensemble guidance is in agreement that a stout mid-/upper-level
ridge will be in place across the heart of the CONUS Saturday
through Monday. Georgia will be on the eastern periphery of this
ridge, perhaps where synoptic-scale subsidence and high pressure are
relatively weaker. Guidance depicts ample moisture remaining in
place across the Southeast, so we anticipate typical Georgia
summertime diurnally-driven convection during this time frame.
Coverage of showers and storms will range from isolated to scattered
each day, and given the nature of this coverage, some areas may not
see any rainfall. The probability for widespread/organized severe
weather is low at this time, but we will need to watch for any vort
maxes/disturbances rounding the ridge from the north or northeast,
which could organize/intensify storms on the mesoscale level.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the ridge is progged to weaken/retrograde,
transitioning the mid-/upper-level flow to weak troughing over the
Eastern Seaboard states. By this portion of the long term period,
what is currently Tropical Storm Erin is forecast to be a major
hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) somewhere between the Bahamas and
Bermuda, with a north-northwest curving path due to the
aforementioned weakening ridge to the west and the Bermuda High to
the east. Our confidence is high that Erin will remain well offshore
of Georgia, so significant inland impacts (such as flooding and
strong winds) are not expected. One possible peripheral impact from
Erin will be an increase in deep-layer tropical moisture. If this
does occur -- and is coupled with a cold front that guidance depicts
tracking southward across the eastern portion of the country --
there may be an uptick in showers and storms (widespread coverage
rather than isolated/scattered) with activity, and convection may
not necessarily be confined to diurnal heating. This front
(depending on its timing/progression) may play a role in Erin`s
eventual track and evolution, as well.

Backtracking to this weekend and pivoting to temperatures -- heat
indices could near 105 degrees across portions of eastern and
central Georgia on Saturday. At this time, maximum heat indices are
progged to remain below Heat Advisory criterion for the remainder of
the long term period. High temperatures will generally range from
the upper 80s to mid-90s with low temperatures generally in the 70s.
High and lows will be 5-10 degrees in the north Georgia mountains.

Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

VFR conditions are in place across the area as the TAF period
begins. Patchy fog will be possible between 09-12Z this morning,
most likely across far north GA and near AHN. A scattered cu field
of 035-050 is expected by through the afternoon. Coverage of TSRA
tomorrow will be highest in northeast GA the afternoon and evening,
with probability of TSRA around ATL being too low to warrant mention
in the TAFs at this time aside from VCSH between 21-01Z. Winds are
expected to remain NW at 3-7 kts through most of the period,
beginning to shift towards NE by early Saturday morning.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on coverage of afternoon TSRA.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  91  72  90 /  10  40  20  40
Atlanta         74  93  74  91 /  10  40  20  40
Blairsville     67  87  66  86 /  10  50  20  50
Cartersville    72  92  71  93 /  10  40  10  30
Columbus        75  94  75  94 /  10  30  20  40
Gainesville     72  91  71  89 /  10  40  20  40
Macon           75  94  74  93 /  10  30  20  40
Rome            72  92  71  92 /  10  40  10  30
Peachtree City  73  93  72  93 /  10  40  30  40
Vidalia         75  94  76  93 /  20  30  20  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...King